Welcome to your Week of August 12, 2026 GTA real estate update. TRREB released its July numbers last week, and the headline everybody quotes — average price down 4.5% — is the least interesting number in the report. The number that actually matters is new listings down 17.8% year-over-year. Supply is draining out of this market faster than demand is, and that is how price cycles turn. Add a Bank of Canada sitting patiently at 2.25% ahead of its September 2 decision, a July jobs report that came in hot, and a condo market showing its first real signs of life in three years, and this week’s picture is more constructive than the headlines suggest. This week’s spotlight goes to Markham. Let’s connect the dots.
TRREB’s July Numbers: Tightening, Not Falling
According to TRREB’s July 2026 Market Watch, released August 6, GTA REALTORS® reported 5,995 home sales — down a nearly negligible 0.9% year-over-year. Meanwhile new listings collapsed 17.8% year-over-year to 14,484. Read those two lines together and the story writes itself: demand is essentially flat while supply is shrinking by nearly a fifth. TRREB titled its own release “GTA Housing Market Tightens in July and Sets the Stage for Price Stability” — and TRREB’s Jason Mercer has publicly characterized the market as sitting at the bottom of the current cycle.
Prices haven’t reflected the shift yet, and that lag is your window. The average selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5% year-over-year. Underneath that average, detached homes made up 46.5% of transactions at an average of $1,291,690, and condo apartments accounted for 26.1% of sales at $636,323, down only 2.3% year-over-year. Condos and freehold townhomes have actually shown the most price resilience of any segment; semi-detached homes posted the weakest combination of pricing and sales. Regionally, the MLS® Home Price Index was down about 5.7% in Peel, 5.0% in Durham, and 6.3% in York Region year-over-year — the correction is not evenly distributed.
| GTA July 2026 — by the numbers | Result |
|---|---|
| Total sales | 5,995 (−0.9% YoY) |
| New listings | 14,484 (−17.8% YoY) |
| Average selling price | $1,003,956 (−4.5% YoY) |
| Detached average | $1,291,690 |
| Condo apartment average | $636,323 (−2.3% YoY) |
| York Region HPI | −6.3% YoY |
Rates: Holding at 2.25% Into September 2
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% at its July 15, 2026 decision, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The next scheduled announcement is September 2, 2026, and bond markets are pricing a very high probability of another hold — with only a token chance of a 25-basis-point move in either direction. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council has gone further, recommending the Bank keep the rate at 2.25% for the next six months before any move higher.
Why is the Bank so comfortable standing still? Two data points. First, jobs: Statistics Canada reported employment rose 75,000 in July, the employment rate ticked up to 60.9%, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.4% — a third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading since July 2024. Notably, finance, insurance and real estate added 18,000 jobs and construction added 16,000, both housing-adjacent sectors. Second, inflation: CPI ran at 2.8% year-over-year in June, still above the 2% target, with the July reading due August 17. A firming labour market plus above-target inflation equals a central bank with no reason to rush. Plan your financing around a hold, not a rescue cut.
What this means at the mortgage desk: With the Bank on hold and the labour market firming, variable-rate pricing is anchored until at least September 2 — and realistically beyond it. Fixed rates take their cues from bond yields, and a strong jobs print puts mild upward pressure there rather than downward. If your plan depended on rates falling through the back half of 2026, that assumption is now the weakest part of your plan. Get a live rate hold from your broker, stress-test your budget at today’s qualifying rate, and choose fixed versus variable on your own risk tolerance rather than on a forecast. I’m a REALTOR®, not a mortgage broker — confirm live pricing with a licensed professional the day you’re ready to act.
Neighbourhood Spotlight: Markham
This week’s spotlight is Markham — York Region’s tech-and-transit anchor, and a market that has taken more of the correction on the chin than most. As of July 2026, the average Markham home sold for roughly $1,131,324, down about 9.2% year-over-year. That is roughly double the GTA-wide decline, and it lines up with York Region’s HPI reading of −6.3%.
Here is the part most buyers miss: a deeper price correction in a fundamentally strong community is not a warning sign, it is a discount. Markham’s underlying case hasn’t changed — the Markham Centre and Unionville employment nodes, top-ranked schools, GO and VIVA transit access, and one of the most established immigrant-receiving housing markets in Canada. What changed is the price. A buyer in Markham today is negotiating against a market that sold for roughly 9% more twelve months ago, in a region where new listings are drying up alongside the rest of the GTA. That combination — below-trend pricing plus tightening supply — is the definition of a narrowing window.
| Markham (July 2026) | Reading |
|---|---|
| Average sale price, all types | ~$1,131,324 |
| Year-over-year change | −9.2% |
| York Region MLS® HPI | −6.3% YoY |
| vs. GTA average price | ~13% premium |
Headlines I’m Watching This Week
- The condo market posted its first real turn since 2023. Urbanation reported new condominium apartment sales across the GTHA rose 52% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to 702 units — the first annual gain since Q3 2023, coming off 35-year lows. The elimination of HST on qualifying new builds and bulk investor purchases did the heavy lifting. My read: this is a bottoming signal, not a boom signal. Analysts quoted in national coverage still expect the recovery to take a couple of years to fully play out, and resale condo pricing is only down 2.3% YoY — the resilient end of the market.
- Sales momentum is better than the year-over-year print suggests. The Globe and Mail flagged that Toronto home sales rose for a fifth straight month in July on a month-over-month basis. A flat year-over-year number combined with five straight sequential gains means the market is climbing steadily off its trough — the annual comparison is just being measured against a stronger 2025 base.
- Housing-adjacent employment is hiring again. Construction added 16,000 jobs in July and finance, insurance and real estate added 18,000. Employers in the sectors most exposed to housing don’t staff up ahead of a downturn. It’s a small signal, but it’s pointing the same direction as the inventory data.
This Week’s Takeaway
If you’re a buyer: you are shopping in the last innings of a buyer-favourable market. Prices are still down 4.5% year-over-year and you retain real negotiating leverage today — but new listings are down 17.8%, sales have risen five months running, and rates are not coming to rescue you before September 2 at the earliest. Every month you wait, you trade a little price leverage for a lot less selection. Refresh your pre-approval at today’s qualifying rate and buy the right home when you find it. In deeper-correction pockets like Markham, the discount is largest precisely where the long-term fundamentals are strongest.
If you’re a seller: your competition just fell by nearly a fifth. That is the single best piece of news sellers have had all year. But buyers are still price-sensitive and the average is still negative year-over-year, so the comparable set that matters is the last 30 days, not last summer. Price sharply to current market, present the home properly, and you are now selling into materially less competition than a seller faced in July 2025. If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a “better market,” note that the better market for sellers is the one where nobody else is listing — and that is right now.
If you’re an investor: the condo segment is where the asymmetry lives. Resale condo apartments are down only 2.3% year-over-year at an average of $636,323, new-build sales just jumped 52%, and the rate environment is stable and predictable. Underwrite to today’s rents, today’s 2.25% overnight rate, and a multi-year hold — not a quick flip on a rate-cut thesis. If the numbers work under a hold, they work.
Bottom line for the week of August 12, 2026: TRREB’s July data shows sales essentially flat (5,995, −0.9% YoY) while new listings fell 17.8% to 14,484 — a genuine tightening — with the average price at $1,003,956 (−4.5% YoY). The Bank of Canada is holding at 2.25% into its September 2 decision, backed by a strong July jobs report (+75,000, unemployment 6.4%) and 2.8% inflation. Markham is running about 9.2% below last year at ~$1,131,324. Buyers: your leverage is real but shrinking — act. Sellers: your competition just dropped by a fifth — price to the last 30 days and list. Investors: condos are the resilient segment; underwrite to a hold.
FAQ
What did the GTA housing market do in July 2026?
Per TRREB’s July 2026 Market Watch, GTA sales totalled 5,995 — down just 0.9% year-over-year — while new listings fell 17.8% year-over-year to 14,484. The average selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5% year-over-year. TRREB described conditions as tightening and suggested prices could level off in the second half of 2026.
What is the Bank of Canada rate right now, and when is the next decision?
The overnight rate is 2.25%, held at the July 15, 2026 decision, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The next scheduled announcement is September 2, 2026, and markets are pricing a very high probability of another hold.
How did the Canadian job market perform in July 2026?
Statistics Canada reported employment rose 75,000 in July and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 6.4% — a third consecutive decline and the lowest since July 2024. Finance, insurance and real estate added 18,000 jobs; construction added 16,000.
What is the average home price in Markham in 2026?
As of July 2026, the average Markham home sold for approximately $1,131,324 across all property types, down roughly 9.2% year-over-year — one of the softer readings in the GTA, consistent with York Region’s MLS® HPI decline of 6.3%.
Is the Toronto condo market recovering in 2026?
There are early signs. Urbanation reported new condominium apartment sales in the GTHA rose 52% year-over-year in Q2 2026 to 702 units — the first annual gain since Q3 2023 — helped by the HST exemption on qualifying new builds and bulk investor buying. Resale condo prices are down only 2.3% year-over-year. Most analysts still describe this as a slow, multi-year recovery rather than a rebound.
These updates publish weekly so you have current data, not stale takes. If you want to talk through what this week’s numbers mean for your specific situation — your neighbourhood, your timeline, your price point — reach out. The conversation is always free, and it’s usually where the real work starts.
Domenic Ferroni, REALTOR®
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Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) July 2026 Market Watch, “GTA Housing Market Tightens in July and Sets the Stage for Price Stability” (released August 6, 2026); Bank of Canada July 15, 2026 rate announcement and September 2, 2026 decision schedule; C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, July 2026; Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey, July 2026 (released August 7, 2026) and Consumer Price Index, June 2026; Urbanation Q2-2026 GTHA new condominium data; The Globe and Mail and CTV News coverage of TRREB’s July release; Markham market data via Zolo and The Canadian Home, July 2026. Market data is subject to revision. This article is general information, not financial, mortgage, or legal advice.