Inside the September 2026 TRREB Report: City by City, Segment by Segment

TRREB’s September 2026 Market Watch — the most recent full monthly report, released October 6 — is a study in averages hiding the real story. “Sales down 9%, prices down 5%” is accurate, but it flattens a market that looks very different depending on where you’re buying and what you’re buying. A condo in the 905 and a detached home in the City of Toronto are living in two different markets right now. Let’s break the report down the way it actually matters: by city and by segment, then translate it into moves for buyers and sellers.

The Headline Numbers

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,040 home sales in September 2026, down 9% year-over-year, as uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs kept buyers cautious. The MLS® average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1% year-over-year. The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% through the month, with the next decision set for October 28.

The 416 vs 905 Divide

The single most useful cut of this report is the gap between the City of Toronto (the 416) and the surrounding regions (the 905). Across every property type, Toronto proper commands a premium — but the size of that premium varies enormously by segment, and that’s where opportunity lives.

Notice the pattern: the premium for being inside the city is largest on ground-oriented homes (detached and semi, roughly $360K–$370K) and smallest on townhouses and condos (roughly $107K–$133K). For a buyer who wants city access without the detached premium, a 416 townhouse or condo is the relative value play. For a buyer who wants space, the 905 detached and semi market offers hundreds of thousands in savings — the trade-off being commute and location.

Segment by Segment

Detached: the premium segment, easing in line with the market

Detached prices were down about 5.1% year-over-year — right in line with the overall average. At $1.56M in the 416 and $1.19M in the 905, this is the segment where the rate environment bites hardest, because the dollar amounts are largest. But it’s also where disciplined inventory is most evident: would-be move-up sellers are staying put, which is keeping a floor under well-located family homes. In pockets of Vaughan, Mississauga, and central Toronto, well-presented detached listings are still drawing competing offers.

Semi-detached: the quiet standout

Semis were essentially flat year-over-year at −0.2% — by far the most resilient segment in the report. At $1.21M in the 416 and $851K in the 905, the semi-detached home is the sweet spot of GTA demand: the space and feel of a house, at a meaningful discount to detached. When one segment holds value while everything around it softens, that’s the market telling you where the durable demand is.

Townhouse: the middle ground holds up

Townhouses were down 4.6% year-over-year, a touch better than the overall average. At $922K in the 416 and $789K in the 905, townhomes are doing what they always do in a cautious market — attracting families and down-sizers who want low-maintenance ownership without condo fees eating the budget. The 416-vs-905 gap here is modest, which makes a 905 townhouse one of the more affordable paths into a ground-oriented home.

Condo apartment: where the softness — and the opportunity — concentrates

Condos took the hardest hit, down 7.7% year-over-year, with the GTA average at $605,257. The headline from the report: two-thirds of GTA condos sold for under $600,000 in September. In the 905, the average condo was just $533,654. This is simultaneously the weakest segment on price and the most interesting on fundamentals — new-construction launches have collapsed, so today’s soft condo prices sit on top of a thinning future supply pipeline. For first-time buyers and investors, that combination is the definition of a buying window.

What It Means For You

If you’re buying

Shop the segment and city that match your goal. Want maximum negotiating room? The condo market — especially in the 905 under $600K — is where cautious sellers are most motivated. Want stability and family space? Semi-detached is holding value, and a 905 semi at ~$851K buys a lot of house relative to a 416 detached at $1.56M. Across the board: get pre-approved, hold your rate, and use the current soft sentiment to negotiate on price and conditions. Buyers who wait for the October 28 decision to “confirm” the market may simply be handing their leverage to the next buyer.

If you’re selling

Your segment determines your strategy. Semi and well-located detached sellers have the strongest hand — price to the last 30 days of comparables and your relative scarcity works for you. Condo sellers face the most price-sensitive buyer pool and the most competition, so realistic pricing from day one is non-negotiable; chasing the market down with repeated cuts is the costliest mistake in this segment. And remember the 416-vs-905 reality: your competition isn’t “the GTA,” it’s the handful of comparable homes in your specific city and type.

If you’re investing

The condo numbers are the headline for you. Prices down nearly 8% year-over-year, two-thirds of units trading under $600K, 905 averages in the low $500Ks — combined with a collapsed construction pipeline that structurally constrains future supply. If your cash flow works at today’s rents and a 2.25% rate environment, you’re buying into pessimism in the one segment where tomorrow’s supply is most constrained. That’s the contrarian case, laid out in the data.

The Bottom Line

FAQ

Want me to run these numbers for your exact neighbourhood, segment, and price point — whether you’re buying or selling? That’s the real value of a report like this, and the conversation is always free.

Domenic Ferroni, REALTOR®

Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) September 2026 Market Watch (released October 6, 2026), including City of Toronto and 905-region average prices by property type; Bank of Canada September 2, 2026 rate announcement and October 28, 2026 decision schedule. Figures are year-over-year unless otherwise noted.