GTA Real Estate Market Update: September 2026

Welcome to the September edition of my monthly GTA market update. As families settle back into school routines and the fall market gets underway, the Greater Toronto Area finds itself at an interesting crossroads: prices have softened from last year, the supply of homes for sale is quietly shrinking, and the Bank of Canada makes its next rate announcement tomorrow, September 2. Here's where things actually stand — in plain language.

The Numbers: A Market That's Quietly Tightening

The most recent full data set from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) covers July 2026 — the August numbers are expected in the first week of September, and I'll break those down in my weekly updates. In July, GTA REALTORS® reported 5,995 sales, down just 0.9 per cent from a year earlier. The average selling price across the GTA came in at $1,003,956, down 4.5 per cent year-over-year.

By property type, detached homes averaged $1,291,690 (down 5.1 per cent from last year), semi-detached homes $964,922 (down 7.4 per cent), townhouses $817,213 (down 3.9 per cent), and condo apartments $636,323 (down 2.3 per cent).

But here's the number I keep coming back to: new listings fell to 14,484 in July — down 17.8 per cent year-over-year, the sixth straight month of meaningful declines. Sales are essentially flat while the flow of new inventory keeps drying up. In my experience, that combination is how markets tighten — not with a bang, but gradually, until buyers suddenly notice they have less to choose from and more competition on the good listings.

Interest Rates: Decision Day Is Tomorrow

The Bank of Canada's overnight rate has sat at 2.25 per cent since October 2025, and tomorrow's announcement is widely expected to be another hold — economists polled ahead of the decision were unanimous. Headline inflation ticked up to around 3 per cent over the summer, but that spike was driven almost entirely by gasoline prices; the Bank's core measures are still hovering near its 2 per cent target.

What's changed is the conversation about where rates go next. For two years, the question was "when's the next cut?" Now, some major bank economists are openly forecasting that the next move could be a hike — possibly before year-end — while others, like RBC, expect the rate to hold at 2.25 per cent through the rest of 2026. Fixed mortgage rates have already started drifting modestly higher off their lows as bond markets price in that shift.

Why does this matter so much? Because of the seesaw I talk about all the time: as rates go down, prices tend to go up — and vice versa. The rate-cutting cycle that ran through 2025 and into early 2026 is what stabilized this market. If we're now at or near the bottom for rates, then today's softer prices and today's borrowing costs may be about as good as this cycle gets for buyers. Waiting for both cheaper money and cheaper houses usually means getting neither.

Three Trends I'm Watching

1. Condos are finding their floor

After a long stretch of oversupply headlines, condo sales held up surprisingly well this summer. At an average of $636,323 — with entry-level units in parts of the GTA now around the $500,000 mark — condos are pulling first-time buyers off the sidelines who had been waiting years for affordability to improve. What I'm seeing on the ground in Etobicoke and Mississauga matches the data: well-priced units near transit are getting real showings again.

2. The construction pipeline is collapsing

Here's the story almost nobody outside the industry is talking about: the GTA's combined pre-construction and under-construction condo inventory has dropped roughly 37 per cent year-over-year, down more than 60 per cent from its 2022 peak, and Q2 saw essentially zero new project launches. Today's oversupply is tomorrow's shortage. Three to four years from now, when these projects would have been completing, the GTA will still be adding people — but not homes.

3. Sellers are on strike

Six consecutive months of double-digit declines in new listings tells me many would-be sellers are sitting tight rather than accepting today's prices. That's shrinking choice for buyers in family-home segments across Vaughan, Mississauga, and central Toronto — and it's why well-presented detached and semi-detached listings are starting to see multiple offers again in pockets of the market.

What This Means for You

If you're a buyer: This is one of the more favourable set-ups I've seen in years — prices below last year, rates stable, and less competition than a tightening market will offer six months from now. Get pre-approved now (a rate hold protects you if fixed rates keep drifting up), and don't try to time the exact bottom. Focus on the right home at a fair price.

If you're a seller: The shrinking pool of listings is quietly working in your favour — your competition is thinning out. But buyers in 2026 are value-conscious, so pricing to the current market and investing in presentation still decides whether you sell in two weeks or two months. If you're also buying your next home, remember you're trading in the same market: what you give up on the sale, you often recover on the purchase.

If you're an investor: The math on resale condos is the most interesting it's been in a while — prices near cycle lows, rents holding firm, and a construction pipeline that all but guarantees tighter rental supply later this decade. If your horizon is five-plus years, buying what nobody's launching anymore is a strategy worth a serious look.

My Take Heading Into Fall

September and October are traditionally the GTA's second-busiest season, and this year's fall market arrives with an unusual alignment: soft prices, stable rates, and tightening supply. Markets like this don't announce their turning points — you usually only see them clearly in the rear-view mirror. My advice this month is simple: whether you're buying or selling, make your plan based on your life and your numbers, not on headlines, and position yourself before the crowd figures out what the listings data has been saying all summer.

Domenic Ferroni, REALTOR®